What kind of New System Will We See?
- The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 has raised the question of what system theory are we living in. There are seven possible theories.
Multipolar?
- The most accepted model sees the world as multipolar.
- A system of several centers of power, some of them trading blocs and all of them engaged in tough economic competition.
- Multipolar would somewhat resemble the old balance-of-power system, but the blocs and major nations do not form new alliances.
- Instead, they focus on their economies, and economic growth becomes their main task in order to gain power and respect.
- This model does not fit reality perfectly.
- The blocs (the European Union, the Pacific Rim, and others), cannot look after their own security; all need U.S. help.
- Western Europe asked for U.S. help during the Yugoslavian uprising.
- South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are powerful trade competitors with the U.S. but all want free security from America.
- Many theorist believe that the United States controls the world because of its military. Without U.S. leadership in the world, little gets done.
- If trade disputes become too great, a multipolar system would break down into something else, perhaps a “resource war” system.
Unipolar?
- The world dominated by one power center.
- In this picture, the United States would lead in constructing what President Bush senior called a “new world order”.
- The U.S. leads the United Nations and the middle-sized powers to stop an aggressor.
- New World Order Highlights
- Would the world unite and fight back against the unipolar power?
- Bush administration adopted the unipolar view of the world and tried to implement it in Afghanistan in 2001 and in Iraq in 2003.
Stratified?
- A stratified model combines the unipolar and multipolar models may fit reality better.
- Power distributed by layers.
- 1st layer: The rich high-tech countries.
- 2nd layer: Rapidly industrializing lands such as China, India, and Brazil.
- 3rd layer: “Zone of chaos” dominated by crime, warlords, and instability. (Middle East, Africa, Central America, Southern Asia)
Globalized
- The world turning into one big capitalist market.
- Most countries become economic players in the world market, a capitalist competition where goods, money, and ideas flow easily to wherever there are costumers.
- The motto of a globalized system: “Make money, not war.”
- Problems with a globalized system:
- If one of the major countries falls into a recession or a depression, it will disrupt the world’s economy.
- Rich will take advantage of poor countries.
- War could lead to blockades and the cancelation of business between countries.
Resource Wars
- Some researchers warn we are moving into an “age of scarcity” marked by a scramble for natural resources, especially petroleum.
- We might already be engaged in resources wars: the 1991 and 2003 wars in Iraq.
- War over oil? War over water? War over land if seas rise?
Clash of Civilizations
- The biggest threat: Islamic extremist vs. the West, Slavic/Orthodox, and Hindu Civilizations.
- Saudi Arabia and Iran, which both detested Saddam’s dictatorship in Iraq, opposed the 2003 U.S. invasion. Pakistan felt the same way about the Afghanistan invasion.
- One should not invade a brother Muslim country.